The Long Now

I've just read Stewart Brand's "The Clock of the Long Now," which isn't that far from being ten years old. How time flies. It's a fascinating read, giving me lots to think about. One concept that caused me to reflect for a good while was his distinction between, for sake of better description, amatuer versus professional forecasters, or in Brand's terms, "futurismists versus true futurists." The distinction is based on whether one's view of the future is based on desire(futurism) or fate(futurist). Desire seems to lead to utopias which can never be, while fate leads to future states that are inevitable, if you could only know them.

In this sense, I suppose, I must be a futurismist, although I am inclined to take issue with his pessimism. I believe that ultimately what humans today believe is good, will drive the forces that shape the future many, many generations from now. We are just beginning to come to the realization that we have it in our own power to create the future we desire.

One small example is our very recent concern about asteroid collisions. A major asteroid collision with earth is inevitable. But it requires a very long view to think about actually doing anything about it. It's not remotely likely in anyone's lifetime or those of several generations hence. Yet, it is a regular occurrence - over million year cycles. If there's any humankind remaining, it will have had to dodge that bullet.