Wow! It's been almost two whole years since I posted anything... But in keeping with the theme of long term thinking, that's just a proverbial blink of an eye. What actually happened was that I was in experimenting mode and lost track of experiments I'd started (this being one).

But since I'm here, a thought had occurred to me about the economic system of the future. In recent history, it seemed certain that market economies were hailed as the clear way of generating prosperity, yet we're now witnessing what can happen when the 'invisible hand' of the market fails to guide activity in the right way. What economic system will govern allocation of goods and services in the future? It's easy to think of continuing some form of market, while at the same time difficult to believe that people will continue to suffer with the complexities of ever more choices to manage.

Will automated systems be developed to allow for managing the negotiation of thousands of choices behind the scenes in a way that preserves the positive benefits of market forces while simultaneously easing the burden of decision making that's already making life a constant challenge?

Who knows? But I'm thinking it will evolve in a way that makes life more like a cruise and less like a bazaar.

The Long Now

I've just read Stewart Brand's "The Clock of the Long Now," which isn't that far from being ten years old. How time flies. It's a fascinating read, giving me lots to think about. One concept that caused me to reflect for a good while was his distinction between, for sake of better description, amatuer versus professional forecasters, or in Brand's terms, "futurismists versus true futurists." The distinction is based on whether one's view of the future is based on desire(futurism) or fate(futurist). Desire seems to lead to utopias which can never be, while fate leads to future states that are inevitable, if you could only know them.

In this sense, I suppose, I must be a futurismist, although I am inclined to take issue with his pessimism. I believe that ultimately what humans today believe is good, will drive the forces that shape the future many, many generations from now. We are just beginning to come to the realization that we have it in our own power to create the future we desire.

One small example is our very recent concern about asteroid collisions. A major asteroid collision with earth is inevitable. But it requires a very long view to think about actually doing anything about it. It's not remotely likely in anyone's lifetime or those of several generations hence. Yet, it is a regular occurrence - over million year cycles. If there's any humankind remaining, it will have had to dodge that bullet.

How far ahead?

How far into the future might one think of looking?

For one idea, past the point at which familiar technologies are gone... or at least changed so drastically that they're no longer recognizable. Some technologies have been around for quite awhile, unchanged in basic form and function.

Although today's automobile may look drastically different in style from the early vehicles of the 1900 era, they essentially haven't changed that much. Four wheels, gas engine... But like technologies before and after, it's lifetime will be limited, or so I believe. What will replace it? A more advanced form of physical transport? Virtual presence? Teleportation?

I believe that there will come a time in the future at which the automobile, as well as many other familiar technologies, will not only be gone, but forgotten. And the only place to see one will be in a museum of ancient artifacts. That's a time I want to visit!

What will the future be like... when?

I'm lots older now. But I grew up in the early 1960's - a time when people were only just beginning to believe that space travel was possible. And still, many could not believe. I came on the scene not long before Sputnik, and I was still a youngster when Neil Armstrong first set foot on the Moon. I dreamed that by the dawn of the Millenium, we would have outposts on Mars, explorations en route to the nearest stars and personal robots to cater to our every whim. The Jetsons.

I'm still waiting... Yet it seems it's just a matter of time.

Time...

The question is, how much time? What would it be like to travel far, far into the future. To a time when technology has advanced to the point at which the person of today would not recognize it for what it was? Most certainly other things will evolve as well. Cultures. Governments. Our very own biology.

What will the reading be on the Clock of the Long Now when mankind dodges his first real asteroid encounter?

That will be an interesting time to visit!